Hispanics lead growth in Union County

Table, Star-Ledger website.

Plainfielders will be interested in the Union County population patterns in the Census Bureau's annual population estimates program, for which data was just released.

The Ledger did an overview of the state on Thursday, and the New York Times did the same for the New York metropolitan region (which includes several New Jersey counties, Union County among them).

A summary table of population by race for all New Jersey counties appeared in the Ledger's print edition, but the data for Union County are erroneous, the labels for Hispanic and Asian totals being reversed.

While whites decreased in the County by an estimated 6% (27,834), the sharpest increase was among Hispanics, estimated to have risen from 20% to 25% of the County population between 2000 and 2006 -- an estimated increase of 27,466 in absolute numbers.

Though Blacks (+4,816) and Asians (+3,231) both saw modest increases, their net increase was estimated to be flat -- 0% -- after the declining white population and modest overall growth are taken into account.

Real estate professionals have observed anecdotally for years an apparent out-migration of Black families who have reached retirement age moving away from Plainfield to southern states where home prices, property taxes, and the cost of living are lower than in New Jersey. These new estimates may bear out these inklings, but only the 2010 Census will give a more accurate picture.

(As an aside, New Jersey looks likely to lose a Congressional seat after the 2010 census. As part of the 'one man, one vote' rejiggering that also must be done, it is likely that state legislative districts may also be adjusted, which will prove interesting -- again.)

I think it would be a mistake to infer from the estimates just released that Plainfield merely reflects this overall Union County pattern. The County data may actually UNDERSTATE the growth of the Hispanic population in Plainfield, as the growth more likely occurs in a few communities -- such as Plainfield and Elizabeth -- as opposed to being equally spread throughout the County's 21 communities.

In any event, if trends continue as they have over the past two decades, Plainfield is clearly trending toward becoming a majority Hispanic community in the foreseeable future.

How these changes are accommodated and how the growing Hispanic population begins to play a more active -- and eventually pivotal -- political role will surely occupy Plainfielders over the next decade or two.

And that should make it even more interesting to live here.

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In the media --

• Ledger: "New Jersey's melting pot flavors far-flung counties" -- Online tables are here.
• NY Times: "Asians Make Broad Gains in New York Population"

-- Dan Damon

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