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Sunday, June 8, 2008

Primary Election: A look at the numbers




Plainfielders interested in how the votes went district-by-district in June 3's primary election will find the complete unofficial results posted here (PDF).

Official results are certified by the County Clerk, based on tallies from the voting machines plus military and absentee ballots. The numbers I have posted are from the City Clerk and will form the basis of the certification by the County.

While primaries are often the victims of low turnout, Tuesday's Democratic primary drew unusual interest -- in part because it was cast as a referendum on the political leadership of Assemblyman Jerry Green, the city's Democratic chair. With 2,931 votes cast on the Democratic side of the primary, nearly 30% of the city's registered Democrats voted. That fact alone should give the Assemblyman and the Mayor pause.

In Thursday's Ledger, both Green and defeated councilor Harold Gibson were interviewed. While throwing his running mate Davis under the bus, Gibson opined some people may have lumped him together with Davis, thereby helping explain his defeat.

Nice try, except it ain't so. The piece which cited Don Davis' bar tabs and DWI case was only mailed to the 3rd Ward, which could hardly explain Gibson's defeat elsewhere.


68% of the total vote came from Wards 2 and 3.

In Ward 2, with 1,007 total votes, Gibson lost to McWilliams 73% to 27% -- nearly three to one. In Ward 3, Gibson's home turf, he lost 60% to 40%, managing to best McWilliams (by TWO votes) in only one of the ward's ten voting districts.

In Ward 4, which Assemblyman Green often tries to play against Ward 2, Gibson managed to win only one of the five districts
(by FOUR votes). McWilliams nevertheless took the ward, 61% - 39%.

Ward 1 was the only ward where Gibson prevailed
(by NINE votes). His strength here was based in Richmond Towers (District 3), where he pulled in 48 votes. This is the district where I sat as a volunteer challenger throughout the day, and I can attest that much of his success is owed to City Committee member Hattie Williams, a resident of Richmond Towers who perpetually works as a county poll worker for the district. Although I must note that there was a sharp increase in the number of Hispanic voters for both the 3rd and the 5th districts, the two whose polling place is Richmond Towers.

If, as Assemblyman Green says in the Ledger story, 'all indications pointed to a Gibson and Davis victory', one has to wonder about the quality of his intelligence, given the magnitude of his defeat.

In the three-way race for Ward 3, candidate Olive Lynch received 155 votes -- far less than one might guess from Assemblyman Green's rhetoric in the Ledger article. But, together with Adrian Mapp's commanding 48%, the two bested incumbent Don Davis with 63% of the vote -- beating Davis by 26 points.



Together, Adrian Mapp and Olive Lynch
took 63% of the Ward 3 vote.


In a heavily Democratic town like Plainfield, victory in the primary ensures election in November, so we may say that Annie McWilliams and Adrian Mapp are the presumptive councilors to be seated in January.

And that is when Assemblyman Green and his proxy, Mayor Sharon Robinson-Briggs, will begin to get their real headaches.

Until then, we should all enjoy the summer. We've earned it.



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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dan,

Another question raised is whether Jerry Green's continuing freefall will lead him to put out even nastier, hate-filled, misleading, libelous, and outright lying campaign flyers and mailers next year when the mayor will undoubtedly be challenged.

Anonymous said...

I love a man who understands math.

agness mclean said...

In my humble opinion, the series in Plainifield Today was another nail in the coffin.

Anonymous said...

Dan, could you post a copy of the direct mail piece. Everyone is talking about it but not living in the the 3rd ward I'm left outta the loop.