Redevelopment: Did Jerry Green miss the brass ring?

The elevator shaft at Dornoch's Plainfield project:
Doorway to nowhere?

Plainfielders may well ask themselves whether, in the great redevelopment sweepstakes, Assemblyman Jerry Green has missed the brass ring.

After the difficult negotiations surrounding the redevelopment of the Park-Madison parcel into a new County office building and retail shops, the possibility of Assemblyman Green and then-mayor Al McWilliams reaching a modus vivendi over redevelopment receded from view -- even as developers continued to show interest, especially in the West Front Street 'Marino's' area and the historic North Avenue area adjacent to the main train station.

It appeared that Green was happy to see projects stalled or sidelined (remember the Council flap over having a gas station as part of the Marino's project that caused it to tank?) until he could get McWilliams off the scene.

But did he miss the chance of a lifetime?

Already by October 2006, there were signs that things were not going well in the residential market and questions about the timing of the Green/Robinson-Briggs initiatives (see my "Development as Russian roulette?").

And then there was the question -- raised by the Planning Board and the Council -- of marketing studies -- or should I say the LACK of marketing studies (see my "Lots of smoke, no magic in development plans"). But it's beginning to look like marketing studies, even if they had been done and done well, would not have prepared us for current market conditions.

News comes down today that outfits to which the Fishman interests had sold off portions of the Asbury Park waterfront they owned have suspended, scaled down or asked to alter the projects in which they are engaged (see "Esperanza halts beachfront condo construction" in today's Asbury Park Press). You will recall that the Fishmans are the masterminds of Dornoch at Plainfield, developing our senior center/condo project on East Front Street.

Down payments for 70 of the units for the 224-unit Esperanza high rise are in limbo. You can be sure, though, if the developer attempts to downscale the project from its 'luxury' label, that buyers may go to court to get the money back -- leaving the developer with ZERO sales.

This comes just days behind news of an even more intense retrenchment in Perth Amboy, Carteret, and East Brunswick (see "Real estate slump has developers stymied").

In this case, more than $2 billion in condo, retail and office construction projects have been halted or shelved.

Consider the viewpoint of one of those developers, as reported in the Ledger here --

"'I thought we'd just be going downhill, but we went off a cliff,' said Jason Kaplan, president of Kaplan Cos., a developer with multimillion-dollar projects planned in Carteret and Perth Amboy."

The signs of pulling back were already apparent in Plainfield back in July of this year, when Mayor Sharon Robinson-Briggs reviewed redevelopment plans for the Courier (see my story "Development: Plainfield taxpayers should read the fine print" of July 17).

Speaking for herself and her mentor Assemblyman Green, the mayor opined that both the North Avenue and Marino's area projects were 'years away' (see archived Courier story here). This came only days after a Flemington developer had asked to be let out of age restrictions on a large condo development in that community because of 'changed market conditions'.

So, where are we today in Plainfield?

The Dornoch Senior Center/condos project is currently the only one under construction, though there is no sales office and rumors abound that the $350,000 prices dreamed of when ground was broken have faded into the mists. Replaced by what? $250,000? -- we shall have to see.

Meanwhile, the Capodagli proposal for the East Third/Richmond/Cottage Place area has been unheard of in months -- ever since they managed to wreck the PMUA's plans for its new headquarters. Shelved? Withdrawn?

If you've been following the financial markets, you know that we are just getting into the scary part of the woods, not out of them. And that more nasty surprises are coming in the banking, mortgage and securities arenas. The next front you may hear about could be major defaults on construction loans, the loans used to build all these condo and retail projects.

So, while 'The Monarch,' Dornoch's Plainfield senior/condo project continues to go ahead, careful observers have to ask themselves if Assemblyman Green missed the brass ring.

And if Plainfield's taxpayers will have to foot the bill.

Asbury Park's Esperanza condos,
on which construction has been halted. (Photo, APP)

---

Asbury Park: "Esperanza halts beachfront condo construction"
Perth Amboy, Carteret, E. Brunswick: "Real estate slump has developers stymied"
Plainfield Development and Redevelopment --

• "Development as Russian roulette?" (10/26/2006)
• "Lots of smoke, no magic in development plans" (10/18/2006)
• "Development: Plainfield taxpayers should read the fine print" (07/17/2007)

-- Dan Damon

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ARCHIVED POSTS OF PLAINFIELD TODAY FROM 11/03/2005 THROUGH 12/31/2006 ARE AT
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