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Coronavirus cases in Plainfield as of 4/18/2020. (Click to enlarge or print.) |
As Plainfield nears the end of its first month under Gov. Phil Murphy's stay-at-home order, it seems a good time to assess how the coronavirus has impacted our community and survey the heavy lifting that will need to be done for even a minimal recovery.
As of Saturday, April 18, Plainfield has 863 active cases of the virus and has suffered the loss of 21 lives.
No one knows when the pandemic will crest, though the state is projecting around April 25.
It is certain though, that Plainfielders' compliance with the governor's order -- with help from elected officials, robocalls, and policing -- has meant a remarkable "flattening of the curve" of active cases.
In discussing "flattening the curve", it is key to keep an eye on how long it takes for the number of cases to double. Early on Plainfield's rate of doubling was every three days, which quickly lengthened as stay-at-home and social distancing were observed.
Here is what Plainfield's experience looks like --
| Date |
# Days |
# Cases |
| 3/25 |
3 |
27 |
| 3/28 |
3 |
54 |
| 4/01 |
4 |
108 |
| 4/05 |
4 |
221 |
| 4/10 |
5 |
433 |
| 4/18 |
8 |
863 |
Increasing the number of days between cases doubling results in "flattening the curve."
If there had been no mitigation efforts by authorities and residents, here's what Plainfield cases could have looked like. Assuming cases doubling every three days (as at the beginning) and there was no other intervention, here is how the picture could have looked --
| Date | # Days | # Cases |
| 3/25 |
3 |
27 |
| 3/28 |
3 |
54 |
| 3/31 |
3 |
108 |
| 4/3 |
3 |
216 |
| 4/06 |
3 |
432 |
| 4/09 |
3 |
864 |
| 4/12 |
3 |
1,728 |
| 4/15 |
3 |
3,456 |
| 4/18 |
3 |
6,912 est. |
So, you can see, the inconvenience of the stay-at-home decree has had an enormous impact on the number of lives NOT put at jeopardy in Plainfield.
Large scale testing would enable authorities to have an even better grasp on how widespread the virus actually is, and how long it would take the healthcare system to get the situation under some measure of control.
In my next post, I will take up the other, non-medical issues facing Plainfield, its leaders and its residents as a result of the coronavirus.
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