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Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Are Plainfield coronavirus cases peaking?


Tracking new cases, which are falling behind expectations.


April 18 was the start of a period of measuring the next doubling of Covid-19 cases in Plainfield. The previous doubling was in 8 days.

If the pattern of doubling remained at 8 days, we would expect to reach approximately 1,726 cases on April 26. That would mean, on average, 108 new cases per day (based on the 4/10 to 4/18 changes).

This chart is structured with two series -- the ACTUAL counts in front and the EXPECTED counts in the rear.

The chart suggests Plainfield is reaching the peak in new cases.

Unfortunately, since we do not have data on Plainfield hospitalizations (which also would be decreasing at some point), we only have the raw number of cases identified to help us understand what is going on.

I will update this chart with each day's new figures.

Be patient and watch carefully.




  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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