Are Plainfield coronavirus cases peaking?

Tracking new cases, which are falling behind expectations.

April 18 was the start of a period of measuring the next doubling of Covid-19 cases in Plainfield. The previous doubling was in 8 days.

If the pattern of doubling remained at 8 days, we would expect to reach approximately 1,726 cases on April 26. That would mean, on average, 108 new cases per day (based on the 4/10 to 4/18 changes).

This chart is structured with two series -- the ACTUAL counts in front and the EXPECTED counts in the rear.

The chart suggests Plainfield is reaching the peak in new cases.

Unfortunately, since we do not have data on Plainfield hospitalizations (which also would be decreasing at some point), we only have the raw number of cases identified to help us understand what is going on.

I will update this chart with each day's new figures.

Be patient and watch carefully.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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A hopeful sign in Plainfield coronavirus cases?

Testing is now going to become very important.

One has to wonder if Plainfield has seen a hopeful sign in the growth of coronavirus cases.

On Sunday evening (April 19), Mayor Mapp reported that the total of coronavirus cases had reached 940.

Based on the chart I developed yesterday (see here), this could be an inkling of good news.

Last night's total was 863. Last night was also the start of a new period of days to see when cases had doubled again.

If the pattern of doubling remained at 8 days, we would expect to reach approximately 1,726 cases on April 26. That would mean, on average, 108 new cases per day (based on the 4/10 to 4/18 changes).

With a total of 863 on 4/18, today's total might be expected to be 863+108 = 971.

What Mayor Mapp reports for today is 940. This is 31 fewer than might be expected on average.

If the trend continues, we would have a pretty strong indicator that Plainfield has topped out.

Be patient and watch carefully.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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How many fewer cases of coronavirus has Plainfield experienced because of social distance and stay-at-home?

Coronavirus cases in Plainfield as of 4/18/2020.
(Click to enlarge or print.)

As Plainfield nears the end of its first month under Gov. Phil Murphy's stay-at-home order, it seems a good time to assess how the coronavirus has impacted our community and survey the heavy lifting that will need to be done for even a minimal recovery.

As of Saturday, April 18, Plainfield has 863 active cases of the virus and has suffered the loss of 21 lives.

No one knows when the pandemic will crest, though the state is projecting around April 25.

It is certain though, that Plainfielders' compliance with the governor's order -- with help from elected officials, robocalls, and policing -- has meant a remarkable "flattening of the curve" of active cases.

In discussing "flattening the curve", it is key to keep an eye on how long it takes for the number of cases to double. Early on Plainfield's rate of doubling was every three days, which quickly lengthened as stay-at-home and social distancing were observed.

Here is what Plainfield's experience looks like --

Date	# Days	# Cases
3/25	3	27
3/28	3	54
4/01	4	108
4/05	4	221
4/10	5	433
4/18	8	863

Increasing the number of days between cases doubling results in "flattening the curve."

If there had been no mitigation efforts by authorities and residents, here's what Plainfield cases could have looked like. Assuming cases doubling every three days (as at the beginning) and there was no other intervention, here is how the picture could have looked --

Date	# Days	# Cases
3/25	3	27
3/28	3	54
3/31	3	108
4/3	3	216
4/06	3	432
4/09	3	864
4/12	3	1,728
4/15	3	3,456
4/18	3	6,912 est.

So, you can see, the inconvenience of the stay-at-home decree has had an enormous impact on the number of lives NOT put at jeopardy in Plainfield.

Large scale testing would enable authorities to have an even better grasp on how widespread the virus actually is, and how long it would take the healthcare system to get the situation under some measure of control.

In my next post, I will take up the other, non-medical issues facing Plainfield, its leaders and its residents as a result of the coronavirus.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Mari Bonini, longtime Plainfield Library trustee and community activist, succumbs to coronavirus

Mari Bonini, during her tenure as
Plainfield Public Library trustee.
(Image courtesy Plainfield Public Library.)

Mari Bonini, longtime Plainfield Public Library trustee and community activist succumbed to the coronavirus today (April 14).

I first met Mari in 1986, when we both began to work for Burgdorff Realtors in Fanwood. We had adjoining desks and often took lunch together at The Corner Store.

Jean Burgdorff had just taken over the real estate business of Hank Fredericks, whose father had begun the office on the corner of South and Martine Avenues in 1921.

Mrs. Burgdorff had in mind to build a strong base in Plainfield sales and recruited an outstanding team under broker Connie Burke that included Mari, Kitty Lynch, and John Grady -- all seasoned pros. I was a newbie.

It wasn't long before Mari and I became personal friends through involvement in Plainfield issues.

Mari served for 14 years as an appointed member of the Board of Education.

She was on the Muhlenberg Hospital Board of Governors, and active in the Women's Auxiliary. In addition, she sat on the board of the Plainfield Visiting Nurse Association.

She was an early supporter of Mayor Al McWilliams and served for several terms as a New Dem member of the Plainfield Democratic City Committee. She was well-known for her role as a Notary Public in notarizing all the New Dem electoral petitions for many years.

Most recently, Mari served for over twenty years on the Library board --he holding every office from President to Treasurer -- and finally retiring in 2018.

When I first met them, Mari and her husband Joe were pillars of St. Bernard's Church, where Joe played in guitar masses, which were popular after the Vatican II reforms.

Arrangements are in the hands of the Higgins Home for Funerals (see the obituary page here). There will be a Live-streamed funeral service at 5:00 PM on Friday, April 17. For more information on the service, contact the funeral home at (908) 756-0017.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Council sets first-ever virtual meeting for Monday; the public is invited

City Council will hold its first-ever virtual meeting
Monday, and the public can participate.

Plainfield City Council has set its first-ever virtual meeting for Monday (April 13)  at 7:00 PM.

This is a video conference call. You must register to participate. Register here --

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/4998772791474831628

The principal item of business is the introduction of the 2020 City of Plainfield budget, in excess of $88 million.

The City is already said to be facing a shortfall of tax receipts in the area of $18 million owing to the business shutdown precipitated by the Coronavirus crisis.

How this shortfall will impact both the upcoming budget and current spending ought to be a topic of discussion at the Council meeting.

Other items of interest include a resolution sponsored by Council President Hockaday in support of state legislation mandating the release of COVID-19 data.

Resolution R160-20 authorizes the use of storm recovery funds for unexpected COVID-19 expenditures. That money would be replaced with any FEMA monies received.

There are no instructions about when to call in to participate in the meeting. I would suggest calling the Clerk's office during the day Monday for further information, at (908) 753-3222.

Oh, and by the way ... those who were skeptical when I predicted a tax increase for the 2020 budget can find the exact amount in the resolution introducing the proposed budget.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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How Plainfield got to 472 COVID-19 cases

Growth in Plainfield's COVID-19 cases.

New Jersey case growth (through Thursday).

While the Mapp administration has been assiduous about releasing the latest Coronavirus case figures on an almost daily basis, several readers have asked for figures on the growth of the pandemic virus in Plainfield.

The chart above is based on the numbers released by the Mapp administration. The very first case was reported on March 16. No other cases were reported until March 24, which is where the chart starts.

For comparison, I am putting up the New Jersey chart (to 4/8/20).  State authorities have said they expect the number of cases to peak in the next day or two.

The chart does not show hospitalizations or individuals who have been quarantined.

The fact that Plainfield's numbers did not peak even higher can be attributed to the public's cooperation with the shelter-in-place order by Gov. Murphy and other safety measures (such as masks).

Now is not the time to ease up on any of these measures.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Lady Luck deals Dems a surprise at ballot position drawing

Sample ballot, showing drawing results taped in place.
Image courtesy Union County Clerk's Office.

Lady Luck dealt the Union County Democratic Party something of a surprise on Thursday afternoon at the drawing for the ballot position in the Democratic Primary election.

County Clerk Joann Rajoppi and her assistants conducted the eight-minute event on Facebook Live because of the Coronavirus ban on public meetings. You can view video of the drawing here.

All the years the New Dems wandered in the political wilderness, the Promised Land of politics was Column A, being the first column of candidates the voters see.

Despite the fact that drawing are supposed to be random, it seemed the Regular Democratic Organization always came out ahead. As New Dems we were relegated to the "Siberia" of column E or even further to the right.

So, it was a real surprise that challengers David Rutherford and Emily Morgan ended up with ballot position Column A.

Although not in their own names. Slates of candidates are organized according to the topmost office a candidate is running for.

In the case of the Progressive Democrats, Rutherford and Morgan are running with the indomitable Larry Hamm of Newark, who is running for the nomination for U.S. Senator against incumbent Cory Booker.

So, when the drawing was down, it was Hamm whose name was pasted into the appropriate space, and then Booker in Column B.

Clerk Rajoppi now has the task of filling in all the other spaces, down to the least municipal candidate and then having the printed sample ballot ready to mail to voters in good time.

Because of Gov. Murphy's Executive Order Number 120, and out of an abundance of caution, the Primary Election date has been moved to Tuesday, July 7.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Negative can be good

The dialysis environment is super clean.

So, Dan's wild & crazy week turns out not to be so much.

I had to get tested for the coronavirus because there were two warning signs of three that are used: shortness of breath and persistent dry cough (the third is fever).

The test results came back Tuesday (I was told it could be up to ten days) -- before I ever even went to my alternative treatment center.

The Plainfield director asked if I would just rather come to Plainfield on an altered schedule. No problema!

All of this was out of an abundance of caution on DaVita's part. All dialysis patients have compromised immune systems.

Infections of all sorts are a constant risk -- so the coronavirus only heightens the attention already paid to  these matters.

Our chairs -- which are about 8' apart -- are wiped down with each use. Everyone wears masks and gloves, changing gloves after every function they perform. These are habits that become invisible, but they protect patients and staff.

I am thankful to DaVita for their thoroughness. And thanks to the many well-wishers who gave encouraging words.

Now, back to business.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Plainfield landlord to tenant: Get a lawyer

Logo of Plainfield's largest commercial property owner.

Under Gov. Murphy's strict shelter-in-place rules, many of Plainfield's small businesses are shuttered, their employees laid off, their livelihoods cut off.

While elaborate care was taken by the Governor to deal with homeowners' mortgages and renters' issues (see here), small business got 'a lick and a promise'.

One restaurant owner confided to a customer who came to pick up a take-out order that their business was down 50% -- and that if it stayed there they could survive, but if it fell they would be out of business.

Then we have Plainfield's largest commercial property owner and manager -- Paramount Assets.

A number of years ago as it became noticeable Paramount was buying up a lot of downtown, I asked a Mapp administration official if they thought it was a good thing to have so much of our commercial property in the control of one company. All I got was a shrug.

When the owner of a popular downtown business approached Paramount recently about forbearance on the rent, they were told "get a lawyer."

Downtown could be in for big trouble if that is the attitude and there are very many businesses who find making the rent difficult -- or impossible.

Suddenly, all those smiling ribbon cuttings look hollow if there is no help for merchants.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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This will be Dan's wild & crazy week at dialysis

A coronavirus swab test.

So last Friday at the end of my session, the charge nurse came over and rather nervously informed me that I must go immediately that evening and find someplace to get a test for the coronavirus.

Further that next week (this week) I was not to report to the Plainfield center for dialysis but would be advised what to do.

Why all this? It turns out that an x-ray I had on Thursday revealed a small amount of fluid in my lungs. That, plus a persistent dry cough I have had since mid-November (well before the coronavirus) set off the protocol.

These are two of the three warning signs. The third, a fever, did not appear. I am a low average body temp person -- usually clocking in around 97.7° Fahrenheit.
 
I will be treated at another center designated by DaVita to handle questionable cases in isolation from the general dialysis population.

Once my test results come back (7 to 10 days), I will return to the Plainfield center if I'm not infected with the coronavirus.

I joked with the Plainfield center's director that if I were infected, I would probably already be dead since I am one of those "high risk" individuals of which they speak.

Given all the talk in the media about how comparatively little testing is being done, I was surprised when the Medemerge in Green Brook told me they did the swab testing on a walk-in basis.

"Walk-in" was something of a misnomer as they were conducting business outdoors under triage tents . An intake person took my ID papers plus a description of my vehicle and I was told to go wait in the vehicle.

In a few minutes, a tech came to the car, returned my ID stuff, and told me to follow them to an outdoor location where another tech would take the swab. After that I was told I could leave and that the results would be available in 7 to 10 days.

The large parking lot was full of maybe 60-70 vehicles, many of whom were getting the same test.

So my treatment schedule this week shifts to Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. I will try to post on my regular schedule but I hope you will understand if I'm just too pooped.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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"No wipes in the pipes" -- why disinfecting wipes should not be flushed

Disinfecting wipes are wreaking havoc on sewer systems.

In addition to the threat to lives and damage to the economy, the coronavirus brings another unhappy circumstance.

The explosive use of sanitary wipes to disinfect surfaces has led to problems in the nation's sewer systems when those wipes are flushed down toilets. See an informative article here.

Bottom line: Sanitary wipes should be thrown in the trash and not flushed. They are not designed to disintegrate and are causing expensive problems.

In the trash!

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Without fanfare, new Pemberton Avenue bridge opens

Handsome is as handsome does: the approach to
the new bridge.

A closer view.

And, of course, credit must be given.

The rebuilt --or should I say "new" -- bridge over the Cedar Brook in Cedar Brook Park was unceremoniously opened to traffic on Friday, April 3.

When I came through on Thursday afternoon late for a medical appointment, the barricade at Park Avenue was still up.

When I came through from the pharmacy on Friday evening, the barricades were gone. I confirmed the bridge's opening on Saturday.

I would be a misnomer to refer what happened here as a "rebuilding". This is a new bridge -- or may I say BRIDGE -- replacing the formerly almost unnoticeable passage over the stream's culvert.

The bridge that was replaced was so inconsequential
it can't even be seen amidst the construction gear.

The splendid new white concrete bridge carries the appropriate memorialization of officials on each wall.

The Union County engineers outdid themselves on this one.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Pandemic can't keep down Plainfield's annual Easter Egg Hunt

Kids can have their own Easter Egg hunts at home
with kits supplied by Plainfield Parks & Recreation.

Plainfield Parks & Recreation's annual Easter Egg Hunt is one of its most eagerly anticipated events.

Each year, upwards of two hundred children show up for the event at Cedar Brook Park.

But what to do when there is a pandemic?

All public events -- including the Easter Egg Hunt -- have been cancelled out of an abundance of caution for resident health and safety.

But that didn't stop the creative crew at P&R. Superintendent Roni Taylor asked herself whether there wasn't a way to bring the event to the kids, since the kids couldn't come to the event.

Voilà!

Take Home Easter Egg Hunt kits. Taylor and her staff packed two hundred bags with 2,000 candy-filled eggs and 200 chocolate bunnies for a do-it-yourself Easter Egg Hunt at home.

Given the health concerns, staff sanitized each plastic egg and wore gloves while stuffing the eggs with candy.

Through a partnership with the Plainfield Public Schools, the bags are being distributed to youngsters in the District's regular lunchtime meal distributions by Maschio Food Services this Thursday and Friday.

Here's to a Happy Easter for all, and a Thank You to Recreation and Maschio for making it happen!

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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Will rent and mortgage relief be a concern at Mayor's Facebook Live event tonight?

 

Rent, mortgages, credit card bills will be
on people's minds tonight.

It's the first of the month and folks in Plainfield like everywhere else are getting out their checkbooks.

It's time to pay bills. Rent. Mortgage. Credit Card. Auto loan.

Mayor Mapp will likely be peppered with questions from worried homeowners, anxious renters, and nervous consumers at tonight's Facebook Live event he is hosting.

Between last month and this, many Plainfielders have found themselves out of work -- laid off or furloughed -- and many will have trouble paying all the bills this month. And for the foreseeable future as long as the coronavirus pandemic has the US economy basically shut down.

While Mayor Mapp has been very good about keeping residents up-to-date on COVID-19 cases, and the state's shelter-in-place regulations, these other questions will be much on Plainfielders' minds tonight.

Gov. Murphy has taken steps to help.

Toward the end of last week, Murphy negotiated a 90-day grace period for mortgage payments with 40 banks and financial institutions. The banks promised not to start any new foreclosure proceedings for at least 60 days.

According to terms of the agreement, credit scores will not be impacted, there will be no late penalties, and it is expected that banks will add the missed payments to the end of the loan instead of requiring one big catch-up payment.

However, mortgagees will have to contact their lenders on their own and will have to show that their difficulties are coronavirus-related.

The situation with renters is a little different. Murphy has issued an executive order forbidding landlords to evict tenants for 90 days. Though he says it will stick, I suspect this will be harder to enforce. Once again, the first thing for tenants to do is get in touch with their landlords.

As for credit cards, he is asking card companies to reduce interest rates (fat chance of that!) and waive late fees.

Small businesses -- like the hundreds in Plainfield's Special Improvement District -- have also been impacted by the shelter-at-home decree.

Many stores and other small businesses have been forced to close. Many restaurants are having a tough time getting by on take-out orders. These businesses also have rents coming due. And their landlords may also have mortgages of their own to pay on their commercial properties.

Everyone is hurting and everyone is looking for help. Though the stimulus package passed by Congress last week will bring resources to bear on the problems, there will be a natural delay in getting programs up and running and then businesses will face the usual paperwork before finally getting aid -- whether loans or grants. In the meantime, some will succumb.

Mayor Mapp's Facebook Live event is 6:00 PM today (April 1). Go to the city's Facebook page here.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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