The needler in the haystack.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Trump effect in NJ? You betcha

Detail from map in Ledger story. Hatched areas to the west of
Plainfield indicate Republican towns going for Clinton in 2016.

Plainfield voters may wonder whether there was a "Trump effect" in such a deep blue state as New Jersey -- and indeed there was.

The Ledger has recently posted two stories online detailing changes between 2012 voting and 2016, where communities have switched their votes from one party to another. You can read them here (statewide) and here (Hudson County).

The "Trump effect" cut both ways in New Jersey, with some GOP towns going for Clinton in revulsion over Trump and some Democratic districts flipping to Trump in response to his "change" message.

Christie Whitman's moderate Republican base in Somerset and Morris counties showed vote switching from Romney in 2012 to Clinton in 2016, as in the map heading this post.

On the other hand, 53 communities in the Garden State that voted for Obama in 2012 decided to go with Trump in 2016. It is instructive to read the (unscientific) comments solicited by the Ledger reporters.

As the Democratic Party assesses what it got wrong and works out a plan for moving ahead, it will be important to look at the data all the way down to the municipal level to see how Trump's message has impacted those who feel left out of the economy.

It would be a mistake to think that these folks don't need to be taken into account.

I don't think that there is a path to long term Democratic success that does not take them into account.

  -- Dan Damon [follow]
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