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Monday, April 20, 2020

A hopeful sign in Plainfield coronavirus cases?


Testing is now going to become very important.


One has to wonder if Plainfield has seen a hopeful sign in the growth of coronavirus cases.

On Sunday evening (April 19), Mayor Mapp reported that the total of coronavirus cases had reached 940.

Based on the chart I developed yesterday (see here), this could be an inkling of good news.

Last night's total was 863. Last night was also the start of a new period of days to see when cases had doubled again.

If the pattern of doubling remained at 8 days, we would expect to reach approximately 1,726 cases on April 26. That would mean, on average, 108 new cases per day (based on the 4/10 to 4/18 changes).

With a total of 863 on 4/18, today's total might be expected to be 863+108 = 971.

What Mayor Mapp reports for today is 940. This is 31 fewer than might be expected on average.

If the trend continues, we would have a pretty strong indicator that Plainfield has topped out.

Be patient and watch carefully.




  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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