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Friday, November 6, 2009

Plainfield, District 22 and Union County: 2005 and 2009 compared




Chris Christie campaigned in Plainfield this summer.
Here he is shown with Assembly candidates 'Bo' Vastine and Martin Marks.



Plainfield's turnout in Tuesday's general election fell by 5% compared to 2005, despite the surge in Democratic registrations brought about by last year's presidential candidacy of Barack Obama.

Though Mayor Sharon Robinson-Briggs won two-thirds of the votes cast, the total cast was down 5% from 2005, bearing out the general conclusion that Dems simply were not on fire to vote in this election as compared to FOUR YEARS AGO.

MAYOR - 2005
Vote Count Percent
(D) SHARON ROBINSON-BRIGGS 4,357 55.75%
(I) ROBERT FERRARO 1,119 14.32%
(Personal Choice) AL McWILLIAMS
2,339 29.93%
Total 7,815 100.00%

MAYOR - 2009
Vote Count Percent
(D) SHARON ROBINSON-BRIGGS 4,906 66.27%
(R) JIM PIVNICHNY
2,103 28.41%
(I) DEBORAH JOYCE DOWE
391
5.28%
(Personal Choice)
3 0.04%
Total 7,403 100.00%

Edison's new mayor, Antonia Ricigliano, echoed comments heard here in Plainfield --
"A number of people told me, 'I will vote for you, but I will not vote for Jon Corzine,'" recalled Ricigliano, a Democrat who was elected Edison's mayor Tuesday.
-- as you can read in today's Ledger story (see here).

More striking is the 4th Ward council vote, where outgoing Councilor Elliott Simmons garnered 968 of the 1008 votes cast in 2005. Incoming Councilor Bridget Rivers was elected with 338 votes cast, with no opponent and no write-in ballots. That is exactly one-third of the ballots cast in 2005, and does note bode well for the 4th Ward in the redistricting that will take place after the 2010 Census next April.

The situation for Jerry Green and Linda Stender was considerably worse.

Green suffered a falloff of 12% as compared to 2005, while Stender dropped a startling 16% (I suspect partly fueled by the perception she has been disengaged during and after her unsuccessful run for Congress). But voter discontent is clearly highlighted by the growth in GOP votes by 27% over 2005, bringing candidates 'Bo' Vastine and Marty Marks within striking distance of District 22's deadly duo.

ASSEMBLY - 2005
Vote Count Percent
(D) LINDA STENDER
30,076 32.30%
(D) JERRY GREEN
28,194 30.28%
(R) MALOOL & BOCHICCHIO-MEDVED
34,830
37.41%
Total 93,100
100.00%

ASSEMBLY - 2009
Vote Count Percent
(D) LINDA STENDER 25,357 26.83%
(D) JERRY GREEN 24,790 26.24%
(R) MARTIN MARKS
22,744
24.07%
(R) 'BO' VASTINE
21,585 22.85%
Total 94,476
100.00%

With 44,329 (47%) votes cast for GOP candidates Marks and Vastine, Republican votes in the 22nd District surged by 9,499 or a remarkable 27%.

Even Assemblyman Green acknowledges that voters are angry with Democrats (see here) --
...some suburban towns were not only angry with me but Corzine and the entire Democratic Party. However, I did not take this personally; I am a team player and have to accept the message that was sent through their actions. These communities were not happy with the Democrats over the last four years and this victory is an opportunity to change that.
-- and he acknowledges that his re-election (scant though the margin was) gives him a chance to makes amends to the District for its perception he only attends to Plainfield.

(ASIDE: I remarked to a reader during the race that I thought the racial 'division of labor' which the Union County Dems had traditionally made to regard Jerry as delivering the (Black) Plainfield vote and Linda that of all the other (white) towns worked just fine as long as the party was riding the crest of the wave. However, as soon as things get problematic, that Faustian bargain shows its Achilles heel (forgive the clashing allusions!): each candidate is seen as uncaring and unresponsive by the towns that, in the bargain, they did not consider 'theirs'.)

Finally, consider the disastrous plunge in the Democratic vote for GOVERNOR in Union County.

GOVERNOR - 2005
Vote Count Percent
Total Registration: 268,810
Turnout: 49.95%


(D) JON CORZINE
77,982
58.00%
(R) DOUG FORRESTER
50,036
37.25%
Total (includes 3rd parties)
134,294
100.00%

GOVERNOR - 2009*
Vote Count Percent
Total Registration: 292,490
Turnout: 46%


(D) JON CORZINE
68,507
51%
(R) CHRIS CHRISTIE
56,592
42%
Total (includes 3rd parties)
134,550
100.00%
*Note these are UNOFFICIAL results.



Though voter registration in Union County has increased by 23,680 -- 9% -- over the 2005 figure (mostly on account of the Obama surge in 2008), the numbers of votes cast was practically FLAT, as shown by a nearly 4% drop in the turnout percentage figure.

However, when you factor in a 4.75% increase in votes cast for the GOP candidate, there are indications of two things: the Democrats, despite what Union County chairperson Charlotte DeFillipo says (see Ledger article here) about having 'done our job', FAILED TO GET OUT THE VOTE across the board, as you can see from both the Plainfield and Union County figures.

The second thing to infer from the turnout and vote is, as Assemblyman Green and mayor-elect Ricigliano both agree, ANGER AT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY among grassroots voters.

Green, Stender and Robinson-Briggs will certainly have to work very hard over the next few years to recoup these losses, which cannot be entirely blamed on Corzine's unpopularity.

On that note, I will have a further post next week.



-- Dan Damon

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6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jerry Green . . . Jerry Green, Jerry Green . . . he never ceases to amaze me.

The race isn't even cold yet and he has already thrown Corzine under the bus!

No Jerry -even though you skidded by in this race, there are many diehard Democratic Plainfield voters who couldn't see themselves supporting or even voting for a Republican just to get you out so they did not vote!

But -remember Jerry the heat is ON!!! Christie is about to set the fire to you and your assistant Sharon.

Anonymous said...

Your "analysis" of the mayoral vote is the best example I've ever seen of trying to make a sow's ear out of a silk purse. The mayor got more votes this time (in numbers and a higher percent) in spite of the lower turnout. Your explanation?

Dan said...

Actually, 3:07 PM, I didn't say the mayor was a sow's ear OR a silk purse.

What I said was -- "Though Mayor Sharon Robinson-Briggs won two-thirds of the votes cast, the total cast was down 5% from 2005, bearing out the general conclusion that Dems simply were not on fire to vote in this election as compared to FOUR YEARS AGO."

However, you got me to thinking (thank you!) -- and I have this question:

Why didn't Robinson-Briggs do as well as the only other CITYWIDE elected official in Plainfield, Annie McWilliams, who got 12,340 votes on Nov. 4, 2008?

Since you brought up purses, maybe we could settle on polyester?

Anonymous said...

How many votes were cast in 2008 and how many did Obama get? (Almost 15,000 as I recall.) Compare that with either 2005 or 2009. The turnout in 2008 was exceptionally large and went for the Democrats--all of them. An apple is not an orange, and your attempt to "compare" them doesn't compute (but you know that). The mayor got more votes this time than she got 4 years ago even with a lower turnout and much less enthusiasm for the top of the ticket.

Dan said...

11:02 PM/3:07 PM --

So, you're still going for a silk purse?

Yep I Said It! said...

3:07pm obviously you failed reading comprehension.

9:05AM speaks of Jerry Green and 3:07PM brings up Sharon Robinson Briggs.

Perhaps it is because they are one of the same.