Social distance and stay-at-home have helped Plainfield 'flatten the curve'

Expected (upper) vs. actual (lower) cases in Plainfield,
last thirteen days.
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Plainfielders' adoption of Gov. Murphy's stay-at-home and social distance have enabled Plainfield to 'flatten the curve'. That, plus masks and plenty of good, old-fashioned hand-scrubbing.

But how do you know anything good is happening? News of hospitalizations in alarming numbers and rising death tolls just keep coming at you. It can be frightening, and unnerving even to the most steeled.

But there is a way of knowing how far we are along in the process of a swelling curve and eventual dropping to manageable levels.

It involves the authorities keeping (and sharing) reliable, accurate data on a regular basis.

And a key way of noticing change over time is the number of days it takes for the number of cases to double.

In the chart above, we have been watching for the doubling of the last 'marker' figure of 863 on April 18. Instead of doubling in 8 days, as previously, it looks to be reaching that mark on May2 -- or 13 days -- 5 days more than the last doubling. Evidence of 'flattening the curve'.


In the earliest days of the crisis, when many people were distracted because the numbers seemed so small and others outright disbelieved there was a crisis, the speed with which cases of infection double was astonishing.

In the earliest days of Plainfield's noting growth in cases, they doubled every three days, then every four.

On April, they reached 863 and the most recent double period had been eight days. My suspicion was that we were approaching the crest of the wave, which I detailed in this chart --

The moment it dawned we might be reaching the crest.

An unexpected stay at JFK meant I was away from my computer and tools for a week, but that week gave us a definite glance at how things were developing (that chart is at the top of this post).

I think it is safe to say the coronavirus has crested in Plainfield.

WHAT THIS MEANS

• Infections will continue, rising more slowly than previously, but rising.
  
  
  
• It will become apparent through testing that a larger percentage of the population than previously thought has been infected with the virus (many only mildly).
  
  
  
• Hospitalizations will continue, though at a decreasing pace.
  
  
  
• The most vulnerable -- the elderly and those with compromised immune systems -- will continue to be at greater risk.
  
  
  
• The pressure to take the lid off will be considerable -- folks are tired of being cooped up and unable to participate in normal daily life or gatherings (weddings, funerals). But experts warn that taking the lid off too fast could put us back in the same pickle. Part of this, of course, is citizen cooperation. Do your part!

Just on Saturday, Gov. Murphy bowed to growing pressure to re-open State and County parks. No group sports or activities -- yet. Social distance applies. But you can be out in the fresh air!
Gov. Murphy has a six-point program for re-opening businesses and we can expect to see progress on that front in the next few days.

Plainfielders can be proud of the role they have played in 'flattening the curve'.

And we can be proud of our first responders and health care workers who put themselves in deadly danger to administer care to victims.

Other towns are recognizing these people with daily noisemaking at an appointed time. We should be thinking about what Plainfield will do to remember the victims, honor the healthcare workers and recognize citizen contributions.

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  -- Dan Damon [follow]

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