Looking closely at the Campbell upset in the Board of Ed race

How the Campbell slate won is a question on many minds.

Even in Plainfield, there are things that happened with Tuesday's election that bear closer scrutiny.

Today I will take up one that probably came as a complete surprise to Plainfield Democratic chairman Adrian O. Mapp.

Tomorrow I will take up one that was not a surprise but should be a concern.

Today's focus is on the Board of Ed races, where we have every reason to believe Chairman Mapp expected to sweep the field.

So, how could things work out so lopsided?

First, exactly how lopsided?

In the aggregate, the Campbell slate racked up 14,584 votes as compared to the Mapp team's 6,584. That is a whopping 55%-45% spread.

The spread between the highest vote getters on each slate is even more dramatic, with John Campbell logging 4,454 to Melba Mullins' 1,808 -- 71% - 29%.

Since there were nine candidates running for three seats, we need to pay attention to the top three vote getters in each of the city's 34 voting districts.

If we look at the contest district by district, we see that the Campbell slate took the top three slots in 28 of 34 voting districts (all of Wards 1 and 4, 5 districts in Ward 2 and 8 districts in Ward 3). In five districts, Campbell's slate took two of the top three slots (2-1, 2-2, 2-8, 3-3, 3-8) and in 2-9 it had only one top vote getter.

The Mapp slate's Melba Mullins was among the top three in two districts (3-3, 3-8), Rebecca Perkins among the top three in six districts (2-1, 2-2, 2-5, 2-6, 2-8, 2-9), Timothy Priano in three districts (2-5, 2-6, 2-9) and Harry Watson in one district (2-5).

The rest of the Mapp slate did not finish in the top three in any voting district.

So, what accounts for the disparity?

Each side had signs, but everyone in politics knows that signs don't vote.

They also both walked and knocked, but unless Mapp's people were slackers (for which I have no evidence), that could hardly explain the outcome either.

Anti-Trump effect? You would have expected the exact opposite if that were the case since Campbell is Plainfield's "Mr. Republican", so scratch that explanation.

CAMPBELL SECRET SAUCE?

No, it seems the Campbell slate had a "secret sauce". Now what could that have been?

First, I would suggest comparing the two teams' social networks.

John Campbell has been in real estate more years than I have lived in Plainfield (35) and has a substantial social network on that account.

Add to that his wife Wilma's career and contacts in real estate where she has probably sold hundreds of homes and you have a formidable base, not to mention her contacts through years on the school board.

Then you have to account for Richard Wyatt's own social resources.

First, he is the current Board president and has brought a calming effect (after last year's highly contentious meetings) and a presidential demeanor to the meetings. So count that for Wyatt.

Then you have his networks in the community. He is a respected Mason and was recently recognized with an award for his community service.

In addition, he is a member of the Omega Psi Phi fraternity and can rely on his fraternity brothers for support. Besides that he is also on the board of the Salvation Army and has launched a youth mentoring program.

Besides all that, his mother is a 30-plus year employee of the City and is well-liked and head of the municipal employees union, which provides her with a sizeable network.

Emily Morgan is also well-known and liked in the community. We should not forget that she won her first term on her own and that must count for something, though it seems entirely likely that she was dinged somewhat for her leadership style when she was Board president.

COMPARE AND CONTRAST

Let's contrast the Campbell slate with Chairman Mapp's.

The Mapp slate's top vote getter was Melba Mullins, a newcomer to running for public office. An educator and a thoughtful and well-spoken candidate, she still seems to have lacked the necessary clout, though I surmise she got a slight boost from the PEA's endorsement.

Then there are Mullins' running mates.

Alma Blanco was a longtime and fervent supporter of Mayor Mapp's nemesis former mayor Sharon Robinson-Briggs.

In that capacity she ran for City Council more than once but failed to get much traction electorally. Although she is well-known among Plainfield Latinos, I do not get the impression she is well-regarded by all in this socially fragmented community, especially among those who toiled for Mayor Mapp when he was on the outs with the political establishment.

In fact, eyebrows were raised when the Mayor appointed her to the Planning Board (seemingly without regard to other Latinos who had labored hard for him over the years), and especially after he designated her for the school board race.

Then there is David Graves, a former Board of Ed member who for years has been active with the Cedarbrook School parent-teacher group. There was some buzz that some find him overly assertive and that may account for his showing as the lowest vote getter on the Mapp slate.

(I am leaving out a discussion of the candidates for the unexpired term -- Dorien Hurtt (Mapp) and Eric Andrews (Campbell) -- in order to keep this post from getting overly long.)

COMMUNICATIONS

Though both slates had the standard mailers, the Campbell team had an additional "Children's First Press" broadsheet that was mailed citywide.

Done in the format of a newspaper, it contained several "feel good" stories about the school district --

• How $61M was saved
• Wyatt honored by the Masons
• Volunteers fixing up the Family Success Center
• Solar energy and the District
• Three schools on track for achievement
• The Farm-to-Table program
• Introducing the Interim Superintendent
• a Basketball star, and
• a Swimming record broken.

Mixed in with all this were an anonymous "letter to the editor", a signed testimonial by a former Plainfield student, and an upfront pitch by the candidates.

It was a masterful stroke not matched by Campbell's opponents.

BALLOT POSITIONING

For the first time I can ever remember, the Union County Clerk decided to group the slates in columns on the ballot. Since there were nine candidates for three seats, plus two for the unexpired seat, space was at a premium.

However, it did have the effect of bunching up the slates so that they were easy to find. (In previous elections, I worked on campaigns where the team members were spread all over the ballot.)

In the event it became easy for folks to simply vote a slate -- an advantage that was equally shared by the Mapp and Campbell slates.

MONEY

The last lens through which to examine the campaigns is spending and funding. This I will save for a later post on campaign finances.

I hope this analysis will give readers some insight into how and why the Campbell slate was able to upset expectations.

Tomorrow, I will take up the other problem for Chairman Mapp, which may prove more difficult to solve, if it is solvable at all. 

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 -- Dan Damon [ follow ]

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